THE END OF CANADIAN CONSERVATISM?
By John Merriam 31-12-2015
(By all means, pass this on to your conservative friends on Facebook or email and ask them to do the same)
Prior to last October’s federal election, the Liberal Party said that if they won, this would be the last election in which the current electoral system would be used, which is First Past The Post. To everyone’s surprise, the Liberals won the election and now hold a majority of seats in the House of Commons. They can cause a lot of damage to the country over the next four years.
There are really two choices other than FPTP: One is Proportional Representation (PR), in which seats are divided up according to the popular vote. So, if the Green party had 7% of the popular vote, they would have 7% of the seats in the House. One main problem of many with this system is that almost certainly, Canada would be doomed to everlasting minority government situations. The Liberal Party currently has a majority of seats and can you see them advocating PR? It would mean that they would almost certainly move from majority to minority and then go cap in hand to the NDP looking for support. This is not going to happen. So the most likely scenario is the other choice, Single Transferable Vote (STV) , which the Liberal Party favors. In this situation, let us assume that there are four candidates in a seat. In any particular riding, the winner must end up with 50.1% of the vote. After the voting, no candidate has reached the magic percentage, but it is known that one of them has the lowest vote total, so he is dropped out of the running. That candidate’s votes are then divided up and instantly assigned to the other three candidates by electronic computation. This procedure is followed until one candidate has a majority of the votes. The computer would take just seconds to declare the winner.
In Canada, there are three main parties plus the Greens. The Conservative Party is the only conservative party of the four. The other parties would choose each other as second and third choices.
We can readily see that with STV, the Conservative candidate would lose unless he or she obtained over 50% at the outset.
Under this system, the Conservatives probably would never form another government. The federal government would bounce back and forth between the Liberals and NDP with the Conservatives in permanent third place. If a Supreme Court challenge to the system were made, keep in mind that the court is liberal and apt to remain so. If the new electoral system were revisited by legislation, it would be liberals who would decide on its practicality.
So what might happen?
- Conservatives, discouraged by no prospect of winning, might wither away over time, leaving the country with no alternative to the leftists.
- The country would sink deeper and deeper into debt until the ‘paradise of Greece’ reared its head and Canada was forced to act by foreign bankers.
- Our otherwise prosperous future would disappear into liberalism.
- The West, still solidly Conservative, could see a rise in secessionist tendencies. A serious effort to separate, or civil war might grip the nation.
As mentioned above, please pass this on to your Facebook and email friends and ask them to do the same.