The death of conservative politics?

THE END OF CANADIAN CONSERVATISM?

 

By John Merriam 31-12-2015

(By all means, pass this on to your conservative friends on Facebook or email and ask them to do the same)

 

Prior to last October’s federal election, the Liberal Party said that if they won, this would be the last election in which the current electoral system would be used, which is First Past The Post. To everyone’s surprise, the Liberals won the election and now hold a majority of seats in the House of Commons. They can cause a lot of damage to the country over the next four years.

 

There are really two choices other than FPTP: One is Proportional Representation (PR), in which seats are divided up according to the popular vote. So, if the Green party had 7% of the popular vote, they would have 7% of the seats in the House. One main problem of many with this system is that almost certainly, Canada would be doomed to everlasting minority government situations. The Liberal Party currently has a majority of seats and can you see them advocating PR? It would mean that they would almost certainly move from majority to minority and then go cap in hand to the NDP looking for support. This is not going to happen. So the most likely scenario is the other choice, Single Transferable Vote (STV) , which the Liberal Party favors. In this situation, let us assume that there are four candidates in a seat. In any particular riding, the winner must end up with 50.1% of the vote. After the voting, no candidate has reached the magic percentage, but it is known that one of them has the lowest vote total, so he is dropped out of the running. That candidate’s votes are then divided up and instantly assigned to the other three candidates by electronic computation. This procedure is followed until one candidate has a majority of the votes. The computer would take just seconds to declare the winner.

 

In Canada, there are three main parties plus the Greens. The Conservative Party is the only conservative party of the four. The other parties would choose each other as second and third choices.

 

We can readily see that with STV, the Conservative candidate would lose unless he or she obtained over 50% at the outset.

 

Under this system, the Conservatives probably would never form another government. The federal government would bounce back and forth between the Liberals and NDP with the Conservatives in permanent third place. If a Supreme Court challenge to the system were made, keep in mind that the court is liberal and apt to remain so. If the new electoral system were revisited by legislation, it would be liberals who would decide on its practicality.

 

So what might happen?

 

  • Conservatives, discouraged by no prospect of winning, might wither away over time, leaving the country with no alternative to the leftists.

 

  • The country would sink deeper and deeper into debt until the ‘paradise of Greece’ reared its head and Canada was forced to act by foreign bankers.

 

  • Our otherwise prosperous future would disappear into liberalism.

 

  • The West, still solidly Conservative, could see a rise in secessionist tendencies. A serious effort to separate, or civil war might grip the nation.

 

As mentioned above, please pass this on to your Facebook and email friends and ask them to do the same.

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8 Responses to The death of conservative politics?

  1. roberthakim says:

    Reblogged this on Robbie's Blog and commented:
    Dimmer future until the final demise of Canada the way the world knew and cherished 😦

  2. Dan Hunt says:

    There already is a growing secession movement in Alberta. There is a more and more profound divide developing between right wing and left wing politics/voters in this country. I somehow do not think conservatism will “die away.” I do think however, provincial separations, or even a civil war is quite possible though.

    • Leon says:

      A civil war is the most probably situation when dealing with dictators!

      • johnrmerriam says:

        Well Leon, we don’t have a dictatorship, for the Liberals were freely elected by voters. But it is true that unless things change, civil war is a remote possibility. Living in Nova Scotia and not wanting to be saddled with the prospect of permanent government from central Canada and the Quebec problem, I would move to Victoria.

  3. monkey says:

    Every single liberal democracy has a centre-right party that wins, so no I don’t agree with the premise the Conservatives would never win again under a different system. They would have to moderate, but a more moderate version could win. Right now Canadians overwhelmingly lean left but things go in cycles and eventually people get tired of governments. There are plenty of reasons for not switching, but no matter what system we go to the Conservatives will still be able to win although they will have to be more centrists to do so.

    • johnrmerriam says:

      Well, you could be right monkey, but our conservative party is already too far to the left. The whole thing makes me more nervous than a virgin cowgirl at a prison rodeo.

  4. johnrmerriam says:

    I agree about leftist Canadians – about 60-65% to the left. However, until things change, and that could be a very long time, all that would happen is that the Liberals and NDP switch back and forth in governing.

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